Originally a comment by Bjarte Foshaug at Miscellany Room.
…the day is fast approaching when you’ll want to pretend you always saw through the craziness and never believed it for a second.
For years lots of people have been predicting “Peak Tr… (1)”, and lots of people have been predicting “Peak Tr… (2)”.
The former kept expecting Tr… (1)’s outrageous behavior, his lifetime of crime and corruption, his pathological lying, his pussygrabbing, his obvious authoritarianism and illiberalism, his nepotism, his use of the office to funnel money to his private businesses, his theft of classified documents, his attempted coup d’état (!), his endless legal trouble etc. to finally catch up with him.
The latter kept expecting the invasion of women’s sports, toilets, showers, changing rooms, domestic abuse and rape shelters, jails etc. by biological males, the mass-application of experimental medical treatments on vulnerable children and teenagers, the rise of detransitioners, the Forstater case, the WPATH-files, the Cass Review etc. to make people start abandoning Tr…(2) in droves.
We all know what happened to “Peak Tr… (1)”, which, at the very least, should make us hesitant about making confident predictions regarding human motivations and how their attitudes are going to change. The thing about cognitive dissonance, the sunk cost fallacy, the “Oedipus Trap” etc. is precisely that the more steps you take in the wrong direction the harder it gets to turn around without loss of face or self-esteem, which is a powerful incentive to protect your investment, double down on your commitment, and turn even more extreme. Much like the rainbow, your “line in the sand” keeps receding in front of you as you go.
Some think the failure of “Peak Tr… (1)” is going to accelerate “Peak Tr… (2)”, and, at least as far as the U.S. is concerned, and at least in terms of public policy (if not popular support*), they’re almost certainly not entirely wrong. In the eyes of dedicated supporters of Tr… (2), however, all this does is confirm what they’ve been saying all along: That the world is rampant with out of control levels of Tr… (2)-phobia, and that the people who oppose them are the same people who either actively support or tacitly go along with the atrocities of Tr…(1). I wouldn’t expect this to make them any less dedicated to their agenda any time soon.
* As many other have pointed out, strong support for Tr… (2) was only ever a minority position. But as we all know, a sufficiently motivated and informed minority often succeeds in forcing its agenda on an uninformed or indifferent majority.