Jam tomorrow

But will it make a difference? Probably not.

The agreement reached in this glitzy metropolis for the first time nails the role of fossil fuel emissions in driving up temperatures and outlines a future decline for coal, oil and gas. In UN terms that is historic, and the biggest step forward on climate since the Paris agreement in 2015.

But by itself, will this deal be enough to save the “north star” of this COP – keeping temperatures under 1.5C this century? Most likely not.

And that’s not just because of the petrostates.

A key factor in softening the text was the attitude of middle-income developing countries who were very uncertain about the much hyped phased out of fossil fuels. For Nigeria, Uganda, Colombia and others there were complaints that they needed to use revenues from the sale of coal, oil and gas to ensure they could pay for the transition to greener energy.

Colombia complained that by moving away from fossil fuels, credit agencies had downgraded their rating, meaning that international loans to go green would cost them far more.

Humans just aren’t wired to be able to put the future ahead of the present. If you have starving children you’re going to feed them the seeds for next year’s crop.

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