Meet the DUP
Adam Ramsay at Open Democracy guesses people might want to know more about the DUP along about now.
The Democratic Unionist Party now look like the Tories preferred coalition partners. The DUP, which is the biggest Unionist (ie pro-UK) party in Northern Ireland, are often treated as though they are just the same as the other Unionist party they have essentially replaced – the Ulster Unionists. But while the UUP have a long running relationship with the Tories, and are a centre right party, the DUP are another thing entirely. The idea that they are near power in Westminster should worry us all. Here are some things you need to know.
Theresa May’s new partners in government have strong historical links with Loyalist paramilitary groups. Specifically, the terrorist group Ulster Resistancewas founded by a collection of people who went on to be prominent DUP politicians. Peter Robinson, for example, who was DUP leader and Northern Ireland’s first minister until last year, was an active member of Ulster Resistance. The group’s activities included collaborating with other terrorist groups including the Ulster Volunteer Force, to smuggle arms into the UK, such as RPG rocket launchers.
Of course, Northern Ireland has moved towards peace, and the DUP, like their opponents in Sinn Fein, have rescinded violence. As part of that normalisation, the fact that parties which include people who have rescinded violence can be brought into the democratic process is a good thing. But for the Tories to end an election campaign which they spent attacking Corbyn for his alleged links to former Northern Irish terrorists by going into coalition with a party founded by former Northern Irish terrorists would be a deep irony.
Kind of the presence of Steve Bannon in the White House.
Yes, that would be Ian Paisley’s party. The man who said that Catholics “breed like rabbits, and multiply like vermin” and whose party ran on an anti-gay rights “Save Ulster from Sodomy” slogan. I’m sure Theresa May and DUP leader Arlene Foster will make a lovely couple.
More parallels: are the DUP going to be to the Conservatives what the Tea Party were/are to Republicans?
Ruth Davidson, Scottish Tory leader, who is gay, has already told May to be very careful what cover, what consessions she gives that shower.
We also have to try to reactivate the NI Assembly, a difficult process in which May can no longer be a neutral arbiter.
The DUP is a long way outside the mainstream of British politics – NI is not in Britain, it is part of the UK and NI politics have traditionally been a bit “off to one side”. I suspect that this, combined with the knives being sharpened within the Tory party itself, is going to make even an unofficial coalition unworkable.
I honestly think that, at this juncture, with Brexit to deal with, May’s lack of a majority is unsustainable. We’ll be back at the polls by the end of the year. That could go one of two ways. If the “unelectable” Corbyn continues in the way he’s been going, then we’ll have an actual left wing labour government for the first time in 38 years. However, it may be more likely we’ll see a swing back to Conservative as voters go, “Well, we tried, but it didn’t work. Maybe Corbyn is unelectable like they say,” ignoring the massive gains Labour have made since the Brexit vote.
Either way UK politics is going to be pretty damned chaotic for some time to come.
For those who think 3rd parties are the answer…the eruption of multiple parties forces government by unsavory coalitions with fringe parties like DUP, or the Haredi fringe groups in Israel.
The other grim prospect is the co-opting of big parties by inner ‘vanguard’ parties like those that used to clutter up Labor. The Tea Party is even more alarming, as they’ve operated in plain sight the whole time.
I have been talking with an Irish friend of mine, who is not a lawyer but has followed the Good Friday Agreement in some detail.
She says there is a distinct possibility that a DUP alliance with a main Westminster party would be unconstititional as it would break one of the clauses of the GFA. The key phrase is:
If the DUP becomes part of the “sovereign government”, they will have an influence over NI that Sinn Fein don’t. That means the sovereign government could be described as not being rigorously impartial. I assume the DUP are hoping that adhering to the “letter of the law” will let them get round that: if they don’t enter into a proper formal coalition, but merely have an unofficial golf-course handshake agreement, they might argue that they are no greater a part of the government than they were before.
However, I can’t see Sinn Fein accepting that. If they mount a legal challenge, it effectively stalls the process of May creating a government until the issue is decided legally. That means Brexit negotiations cannot begin/continue (whatever the hell stage we’re at right now) because the EU needs a legally confirmed government to negotiate with. If May decides to forge ahead with a minority government and an ad hoc series of alliances made as and when, then a) she’s mad, and b) we’ll be back at the polls before Christmas.
Time is ticking away. At this rate I can see 2019 rolling round with no clear Brexit agreement, and the UK out of Europe with a huge hole in our statutes where EU legislation used to sit.