On again off again
What is the point of announcing tariffs and then promptly delaying them? Other than making yourself look like a clueless buffoon?
Canada’s initial retaliatory tariffs against the U.S. will remain in place despite President Donald Trump postponing 25% tariffs on many imports from Canada for a month, two senior Canadian government officials said.
Trump said Thursday that he has postponed 25% tariffs on many goods from Canada and Mexico for a month, amid widespread fears of a broader trade war.
Why? Why do that? What can possibly be the point? Does he think they’ll be welcome in a month?
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said earlier Thursday that he expects Canada and the U.S. to be in a trade war for the foreseeable future after having what he called a colorful but constructive call with Trump on Wednesday.
A senior Canadian government official said the call became heated and Trump used profanity when Trump complained about protections in Canada’s dairy industry. The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity as they were not authorized to speak publicly about the call, said Trudeau did not use profanity.
Now there’s a surprise – Trudeau is not as childish and out of control as Trump is.
Trump probably thinks that part of his “talent” for “negotiating” is his unpredictability, that keeping your opponents guessing is a winning strategy for getting your way, encouraging the other party to make attempts to soothe and placate him, to give him what he wants so he won’t do something worse. When you do this to people who are supposed to be your trading partners, not your enemies, it’s going to piss them off. Trade is about exchange and mutual benefit. For Trump, it’s about bullying, winning, and gloating. Any deal where the other side gets something out of it is an example of America “being taken advantage of”.
Chances are he’s received lots of frantic feedback warning him that proceeding with this trade war will tank the US economy (which it will), but his ego prevents him from admiting this, let alone saying this out loud. He’s already said that the US “doesn’t need” any of the goods that Americans get from Canada. But it does. We know that this dispute will inconvenience us and damage our economy, that we do rely on the United States as our biggest trading partner, but we’re willing to endure the unavoidable economic pain in order to maintain our sovereignty. We are willing to make this sacrifice. Trump wasn’t prepared for this. He didn’t think this would cost him anything. Trump sold his tariffs as a sure-fire revenue-earner that would result in huge amounts of money pouring into the US economy. Somehow. Like many bullies and cowards, he probably thought we’d crumble to his threat, and hand over our economy to him without his having to go through with pulling the trigger. We’re calling his bluff. So this “pause” is painted as either a final warning, or a gesture of merciful magnanimity, because he’ll never admit that the tariff plan was an ill-conceived blunder from the start. Trump might be shooting blanks, but we’re loaded for bear.
The one danger is that, having painted himself into a corner, he might feel the need to do something that would be even more rash and stupid in order to save face (without ever realizing that at this point, he has little face left to save; his fans won’t care, his opponents already know he’s a dangerous, know-nothing idiot).
Trump thinks he’s in control, that he gets to make the rules, and that we’ll just follow along. Being a bully who often gets what he wants, he doesn’t understand the idea of someone less powerful standing up to him, resisting the threat of greater force. Surrounding himself with toadies and yes-men, he’s not used to anyone telling him “No.” We’re doing both; that’s unacceptable. And surprising: hence the profanity. We’re not playing along and following his script. We Canadians have a reputation of saying “Sorry” when someone steps on out toes, but we don’t take kindly to being kicked. Even Canadian politeness has limits. With Canada, Trump sees himself as a prospective, beloved President. He’s used to having his way and getting what he wants. He wants us. We’re supposed to be afraid of him, and behave accordingly. We’re supposed to be relieved and grateful that he hasn’t yet unleashed the full force of his anger, being as he is
the Great and Powerful Wizard of OzPresident of the United States. Orange is the new green.One of those “protections” has to do with antibiotics and hormones in the milk. Trump is asserting that we shouldn’t determine our own food safety.
Well, every time Trump announces tariffs, share prices fall. Every time he announces a pause, share prices rise. That makes a nice opportunity for a quick in and out at a tidy profit.
Or am I just giving him credit for being smart enough to work that out?
Well, he’s put RFK Jr. in charge of Health and Human Services, so he’s not that interested in his own country’s safety.
Probably, but someone in his circle could be suggesting this course of action with exactly this result in mind. A man as easily led as Trump isn’t going to be ahead of anybody.
A columnist in today’s Globe and Mail pointed out that Canada could easily throttle the US’s supply of toilet paper, and that this was worth pursuing as a tactic in the current trade war.
This strategy could, of course, be nullified if every American household simply kept a copy of Trump’s The Art of the Deal in the biffy.
What not Bruce said. It’s a bargaining chip. Or rather Trump thinks it is. He actually thinks he’s good at this. He’s spent his life role-playing a two-bit gangster and been moderately successful at it because when you start out wealthy you get to do these things. He knows “they let you do it” but he lacks the intellectual capacity to put two and two together and realise his whole life has been one continuous pantomime. Indeed he lacks the capacity to distinguish the realty from the pantomime. And because there are enough people in the US who are equally in thrall to that pantomime (one part john Wayne, one part Dirty Harry, one part The Apprentice, but all in clown costume) he gets to play. So we get the “great television” of the Zelensky meeting, while the world burns.