The escalation
This is exactly the escalation in the simmering conflict between Iran, its proxies and Israel that everyone feared: a direct attack by one nation against another.
For nearly two weeks Iran’s security establishment has been mulling its response to the 1 April airstrike on its consulate in Damascus, widely assumed to be the work of Israel, that killed several top Iranian commanders. Clearly, a decision was reached that such a major escalation – an attack that flattened a diplomatic building and therefore sovereign Iranian territory – called for an escalatory response.
Israel has several layers of air defences and it has vowed to respond to any attack on its soil and it will. The risk now is that this tit-for-tat continues to escalate into a full-blown regional war, something most governments in the region have been trying hard to avoid ever since the Hamas-led attack on Israel on 7 October.
And that the regional war continues to escalate into a global war and before long there is nothing left of Planet Earth.
Here’s columnist Gwynne Dyer’s take on this situation. It was written on April 8, so parts of it may already be moot, but it gives some sense of Netanyahu’s possible motivation: https://gwynnedyer.com/2024/middle-east-a-bigger-war/
Thank you, YNnB; Dyer’s piece expresses far more cogently than I could the scattered thoughts I was having about Netanyahu’s motives; I suspect Dyer is right. The situation is appalling, and all sides are paying dearly for Netanyahu’s double-dealing, and for the decades-long hands-off approach to what would clearly end in disaster in the Middle East, as well as in their own nations, by Western powers that call themselves Israel’s allies.
(NB: I HAVE DUG THIS COMMENT OUT OF MY ARCHIVES, BUT I MAY HAVE POSTED IT HERE ON B&W BEFORE.)
It should always be remembered that the (likely nuclear-armed) Frankenstein monster of the present Iranian clerical fascism was the creation of the British MI6 in cooperation with the American CIA. Those two outfits supported the 1953 reactionary overthrow of the democratically-elected regime headed by Prime Minister Mohammad Mossadegh. Their motive was a grab for the enormous oil reserves of Iran on behalf of western oil companies.
Ultimately the Shah’s dictatorship was in turn overthrown and the present regime of the Islamic mullahs installed in its place, and at enormous cost to the Iranian people. They were plunged into a new Dark Age.. Democrats and feminists like Narges Mohammadi have suffered persecution ever since.
Given that Israel has nuclear weapons, Iran now has far more likelihood of aiming for a stockpile of them than it has ever had., It brings back memories of the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis, when we went to be wondering if there woul be anything left to get up to the following morning.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1953_Iranian_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat#:~:text=The%201953%20Iranian%20coup%20d,Reza%20Pahlavi%2C%20on%2019%20August
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_program_of_Iran#:~:text=1950s%20%2D%201960s-,Iran's%20nuclear%20program%20was%20launched%20in%20the%201950s%20with%20the,s%20Atoms%20for%20Peace%20program
It should always be remembered that the (likely nuclear-armed) Frankenstein monster of the present Iranian clerical fascism was the creation of the British MI6 in cooperation with the American CIA. Those two outfits supported the 1953 reactionary overthrow of the democratically-elected regime headed by Prime Minister Mohammad Mossadegh
Indeed. The endless interference in the Middle East by Western powers (and Russia) is a large cause of the brutal violence that plagues the region.
God damn Netanyahu.
Yeah, and the worst part is, if Biden decides to play the “No Aid” card on Israel, it gets worse, not better–at least, if I’ve got the right read on Netanyahu’s temperament:
Option one, which is what all (well, most) of the American protestors want, is that Biden tells Israel, “Accept a cease-fire, or we cut off aid,” and Israel capitulates. This is not what I believe will happen, however.
Instead, I think that if we actually threaten to flip the very binary switch we have to exercise leverage over Israeli policy, Netanyahu will assume that Biden is bluffing, and continue–if not accelerate–his war crimes. This of course, leaves Bdien with two options–fold or call. If he folds, then Netanyahu is only further emboldened.
If he calls, however, and actually does freeze aid until Israel falls in line, Bibi will not meekly submit, for the reasons highlighted in the article. So, instead, he’ll attempt to escalate, making his dream of a unified Israel which includes all of Gaza and the West Bank complete; at that point, he might even be willing to risk trial, as his legacy would be secure.
And of course, that would not happen, because the moment US aid is cut off, this will no longer be a proxy-fight waged by Hamas and Hezbollah. It will be a straight-up war with Israel alone vs. Iran, Syria and Lebanon–at the least. These powers will endeavor to achieve their own long-standing dream of killing every Israeli citizen and turning the area into a new Caliphate under Sharia law, with all that entails for the women of the region.
And while Israel might hold out for awhile, I don’t think it can last indefinitely without intervention by allies. So either the US commits to a much nastier war than is being fought now, or we allow Holocaust II to go down.
Except that won’t be the case either. Because the first time an enemy soldier enters and holds territory within Israel’s 1967 borders? Yeah, Netanyahu says “Fuck it” and issues the launch commands. I’ve seen folks claim he wouldn’t nuke Gaza or the West Bank because of the danger to Israel, but I don’t believe he gives a damn about the long-term consequences. I think he’d use low-yield ‘tactical’ nukes, probably designed to strike and detonate underground (where we know Hamas lives) and simply wipe out those areas entirely.
Furthermore, it won’t stop there. If he has to launch the nukes, he’ll go all-out against his enemies. Beirut, Damascus and especially Tehran will be targeted. If he’s got enough to get through defenses, and he believes Saudi nationals are backing the attackers (a likely scenario, even if the Saudi government officially does not take part in the attack), then I wouldn’t put Mecca and Medina off his list of targets. Where THAT all leads to, I haven’t been able to suppose.
But I’m pretty sure Biden is aware of these same potentialities, and that’s why he’s not making those threats. My big concern is that enough lefties, who fail to see the big picture, stay home on November 4th to ‘punish’ him, and we end up with Trump in the White House as a result.
All the above leads me to the conclusion that Israel is the most powerful state in the USA; more powerful even than Texas. despite the latter’s having 3 x the Israeli population (30 million Texans vs 10 million Israelis.) And the whole thing has the potential to reduce a pretty big hunk of the world to smouldering ruins.
And @# 6, Freemage says:
If it’s any consolation, think that Captain Bonespurs has already proved his reluctance to go to war, and I think that Stormy Daniels would most likely back me up there. Just sayin’
Most sensible comment I’ve seen so far on the situation comes from Jon over at Why Evolution is True:
They’re not, and he knows they’re not. Apparently they helped repel this attack. So did Jordan. Both countries are looking to improve and normalize relations with Israel.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.dw.com/en/why-did-some-arab-countries-appear-to-help-israel/a-68815074
From the New Statesman:
The New Statesman’s foreign correspondent Bruno Maçães suggests the Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu may have ordered the 1 April strike to shore up his political position. He writes:
‘Throughout my meetings in Israel two weeks ago, including with the former Shin Bet head Ami Ayalon, one concern was evident: that the war in Gaza had reached an impasse and that the current, deeply unpopular Israeli government may be desperately looking for a way to prevent its own ruinous political defeat. Netanyahu seems to have seen the attack against the Iranian embassy as a way to expand the war, placing it in a more favourable position. Draw in Iran and the swelling American criticism of Israel’s actions will fall silent. So far that has worked.’
I hope very much that the words that Lady Mondegreen quotes are true; and suspect (and hope) they will turn out to be so. I cannot see any benefit for anyone (including Israel) in widening the war, whatever it may do for that horrible individual Netanyahu in the very short-term.
When has Bibi done anything for any other reason? Thought the Iranians might turn up the heat for similar reasons but I guess they’ve sufficiently crushed the protests so that’s not much of a concern.