Always worse than predicted.

It is “virtually certain” that future extreme events in Antarctica will be worse than the extraordinary changes already observed, according to a new scientific warning that stresses the case for immediate and drastic action to limit global heating.

A new review draws together evidence on the vulnerability of Antarctic systems, highlighting recent extremes such as record low sea ice levels, the collapse of ice shelves, and surface temperatures up to 38.5C above average over East Antarctica in 2022 – the world’s largest ever recorded heatwave.

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The rate of ice sheet loss from Antarctica “matches the IPCC worst case” for predicted ice loss under high greenhouse gas emissions scenarios, Hogg said. “The observations show we’re tracking [along] the most extreme prediction of what might happen.” This is despite global emissions currently tracking closer to an intermediate emissions pathway.

Ice shelves, which fringe three-quarters of the Antarctic coastline, have also retreated in recent decades. Large sections of the Larsen-A, Larsen-B, and Wilkins ice shelves “collapsed catastrophically” in 1995, 2002 and 2008 respectively, the study noted. Ten Antarctic ice shelves have also experienced major ice calving events since 2009.

“We should be deeply concerned about the environment of Antarctica in the years that are coming under continued fossil fuel burning,” said the study’s lead author, Prof Martin Siegert of the University of Exeter.

We will, we’ll be very deeply concerned. We just won’t do anything about it.