Paradigm
Sea level is going to rise around Charleston.
The city is in the lowcountry region in South Carolina, and it is very, very low: more than a third of the houses in the city are at 10 feet above sea level or less. The first settlers saw mostly marsh when they arrived in 1640, stepping gingerly over scores of muddy creeks. Much of the city was built on fill – trash, oyster shells, wooden pilings, human waste, loose dirt – over centuries, and now nature wants its land back. Charleston’s residents have already become accustomed to frequent high-tide flooding on days when the sun is shining.
The message that climate change is happening, and happening quickly, is acknowledged by national governments around the world. But the translation of that message into action at the local level is not yet, really, happening.
The trouble is that sea level rise is taking place relatively slowly compared with the human attention span – which is, let’s face it, gnat-like, and made even shorter when other crises (a global pandemic, the threat of world war, domestic political instability, rising inflation) are on our minds. City leaders, occupied with running for re-election, prioritize continued growth and expanding the tax base over protecting against future doom. Awareness is smoothed over by the common cognitive bias toward believing that anything awful is anomalous. Humans are not by nature long-range planners, particularly when they are focused on simply surviving. Boosterism and denial are at work in Charleston, as they are everywhere.
What I keep saying. Nothing is being done; planes still fly in their thousands every day; cars still zoom in their millions; cruise ships keep advertising and passengers keep boarding; nothing is changing.
I recently read “Project Hail Mary” by Andy Weir. (Also author of ‘The Martian’)
Early in the novel it is found that the sun is dimming.
Is the most unrealistic part of the story that humanity works together to try to solve the problem?
Yes, it absolutely is… It’s why all the conspiracy theories fall apart; to paraphrase Haidt: we’re 90% chimpanzee and 10% bee.
The most likely scenario would be that humanity stockpiles canned goods and weapons, and prepares for the day they will move into their bunkers and keep all their neighbors away.
I haven’t read Project Hail Mary, but I’m inclined to think that the response described in Don’t Look Up is more probable.
I’m all for short-term preparedness – I make sure that I have in stock at least the recommended 72 hours worth of food, water, sanitation, basic medical supplies, and alternate methods of lighting and cooking. Case in point: There is currently a freezing rain system here, and I was without power* for about 3 hours earlier today, but I was able to make coffee and tea on my campstove on the porch, and ready to make dinner there as well if required. The power is currently restored, but I would not be at all surprised if it goes out again this evening. But I have decided not to do anything longer term than that. Perhaps my approach is somewhat defeatist, but I expect failed infrastructure is likely to result in widespread “bunkerism”, which suggests that it is irrelevant how well I have prepared (or how willing I am to share), if I am not also prepared to defend with lethal force (which I am not.)
* I’ll note that I live in a suburban area of one of Canada’s 4 largest city.