Catastrophe on the way
Florida is about to get hammered.
Hurricane Ian is bearing down on the Gulf Coast of Florida as one of the strongest storms on record for the area. Its storm surge could be unlike anything seen there as the eye comes ashore, and forecasters are warning that Ian’s intense rainfall – which is expected to continue across the peninsula through Thursday, could lead to life-threatening floods.
Global warming=get out of Florida. It’s doomed.
Florida sees a lot of hurricanes, but not the biggest ones. This is a biggest one.
If Hurricane Ian makes landfall with maximum winds of 155 mph or stronger, it will be the most intense storm to ever make landfall on the west coast of the Florida peninsula.
The National Hurricane Center on Wednesday increased Ian’s storm surge forecast to 12 to 18 feet from Englewood to Bonita Beach, which would be something never seen in the region.
Storm surge is generated mainly by the hurricane’s strong winds, which blow from the ocean toward land and push huge amounts of water beyond the coast. Storm surge will likely be Ian’s most deadly aspect – 90% of hurricane-related deaths are water-related, according to the National Hurricane Center, and around 50% are caused by storm surge.
It was storm surge that drowned New Orleans.
Hurricane Ian rapidly intensified Wednesday morning. Its maximum winds increased from 120 mph to 155 mph in less than three hours, jumping from a Category 3 to a strong Category 4 in the process.
Rapid intensification is defined as a wind speed increase of 35 mph or more in 24 hours, and it has historically been a rare phenomenon. But scientists say it is becoming more likely for hurricanes as the climate crisis advances, pushing ocean temperatures higher and laying the groundwork for them to explode at a breakneck pace into deadly major hurricanes.
So that’s bad.
Also it’s going to settle down over Florida and dump rain for several days. Lots and lots and lots of rain.
“Widespread, life-threatening, catastrophic flooding is expected across portions of central Florida with considerable flooding in southern Florida, northern Florida, southeastern Georgia and coastal South Carolina,” the National Hurricane Center said Wednesday. “Widespread, prolonged major and record river flooding expected across central Florida.”
How much rain?
Rainfall rates will likely exceed 3 inches per hour on Wednesday, which could result in at least a foot of rain across central Florida, the center said. Rainfall will shift north on Thursday, putting Gainesville and Jacksonville at risk.
Yikes.
Also, it’s already been raining heavily for the past couple of weeks so rivers are already swollen.
This is going to be bad.
FWIW here is a proposal for mitigating one aspect of climate change.
https://phys.org/news/2022-09-refreezing-earth-poles-feasible-cheap.html
(It was mentioned & linked to in a recent episode of ‘Skeptics Guide to the Universe’)
I think it worth further investigation to determine whether it really would do more good than harm.
I don’t see that it would help mitigate hurricanes, though reducing sea level rise would be good.
St. Augustine, on the other side of Florida, is already flooding. And Key West was hammered (notice the idiotic tourist in the photo–hey, hurricanes are fun).
Cuba is beginning to recover, but I imagine they’ll need a lot of help.
I have friends and relatives in Florida. I’m really worried about their safety.
NOAA’s National Hurricane Center has graphics for Ian here:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/160155.shtml
On my desktop browser, clicking on a thumbnail will stay on that page, and change focus to enlarge that image (except for the last thumbnail labeled “SPC” that jumps to the NOAA Storm Prediction Center).
The present “Peak Surge” forecast of 12-18 feet above ground level is blowing my mind.
Good god. That’s horrific.
Bonita Beach to Englewood: purple: 12 to 18 feet.
Thanks for the link Dave.
I have a friend right smack in the middle of that 12-18ft peak surge region. So far she’s safe, and she’s crowdsourcing information about current conditions in the immediate area. Dave, thanks for the NOAA link.
CNN reports it’s a Cat 3 now, but the Tampa mayor says the worst is ahead.
You’re welcome for the link. It seems to update, e.g. the Peak Surge for Bonita Beach is now shown as 8-10 feet. To be certain, you could use this home page, and scroll down to see the current images for Ian:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Also, my desktop browser displays https://radar.weather.gov/ that shows rain in a high-resolution mosaic of local weather radars. You can zoom in to see Ian and press the play button. The local radars like KMLB in Melbourne have enough range that you get a really good view of the rotation and the rain in the ocean (not cropped by the range of the radar).