We’ve appeased it, right?
I keep wandering into magical thinking myself – I see more people out and about and think “Oh it must be getting bet – NO, stupid, people are getting more reckless.” I’m betting we all do that, not least because it’s normally a pretty good indicator. “Lots of people around here, probably not many tigers.” Normally pretty good, but then there can be the unexpected tiger.
The WHO warns us not to think all the tigers will go somewhere else.
Speaking at a briefing on Wednesday, WHO emergencies director Dr Mike Ryan warned against trying to predict when the virus would disappear.
He added that even if a vaccine is found, controlling the virus will require a “massive effort”.
…
“It is important to put this on the table: this virus may become just another endemic virus in our communities, and this virus may never go away,” Dr Ryan told the virtual press conference from Geneva.
“HIV has not gone away – but we have come to terms with the virus.”
And, as Fauci reminded us at one of the early briefings, there is effective treatment for HIV.
Their stark remarks come as several countries began to gradually ease lockdown measures, and leaders consider the issue of how and when to reopen their economies.
I think the gradually easing idea is magical thinking too. “If we just walk very carefully over the chasm we’ll be fine.” That doesn’t appear to be the case with this virus.
Dr Tedros warned that there was no guaranteed way of easing restrictions without triggering a second wave of infections.
“Many countries would like to get out of the different measures,” the WHO boss said. “But our recommendation is still the alert at any country should be at the highest level possible.”
Dr Ryan added: “There is some magical thinking going on that lockdowns work perfectly and that unlocking lockdowns will go great. Both are fraught with dangers.”
I’m finding magical thinking quite hard to avoid. I keep thinking stupid things like we’ve waited it out, we’ve diluted it, we’ve spread it so thinly that it won’t get us, etc etc – and then I slap myself up the head. I’ll be thinking the same thing an hour later though.
Adaptation, not a return to normalcy is likely the answer. There is a new normal. Businesses will need to adapt to the prevalence of a dangerous pathogen. Disruptions will occur and there will be winners and losers. The pre-COVID economy is probably gone for good so it’s likely doubly stupid to compromise health and safety for the pipe dream that everybody will just forget this. Ignoring it isn’t an option. Business leaders should remember that the lawsuits that will inevitably follow in the wake of people contracting the virus from relaxed stay at home restrictions likely won’t be directed at Trump. We also need to remember that big disruptions tend to impact decision-making for at least a generation – think about the frugality of those who lived through the (previous) Great Depression. They didn’t spend like drunken sailors even during the 50’s, 60’s, and beyond.
Already we are seeing businesses transitioning to new models. The ones that do seem to be surviving in our neck of the woods. As a business person, I don’t foresee any relief until we have widespread immunity from a national vaccination program. Which of course will be hampered by the usual antivaxx asshats, so who knows when that will be. In our industry we bit the bullet and immediately pivoted toward distributed business models rather than pressuring the government to open things up prematurely. We’ll survive and more importantly, so will everyone else with whom we do business.
Funny thing, I don’t see that magical thinking so much here. It’s more like, okay, we’ve done this long enough, we’re tired of staying home, we want to go out, so let’s just…go out!
Actually, not even that. People here are polling at 80% wanting restrictions to remain, and be stricter. This is more like those at the top saying “Oh, I lost money in the stock market from this. Wait, I’m sure people are sick and tired of staying home, and would love to have everything open for work and play again. I can reap the benefit.” Meanwhile, a handful of yahoos with a very vocal presence and Trump flags adorning their houses, MAGA hats on their heads, bull through the grocery stores potentially infeccting and being infected, and they get listened to for two reasons: (1) They are loud and (2) They are saying what our business leaders (and political leaders, who seem to be the same people) want to hear.
And the 80%? The politicians know most of them won’t vote Democrat even if their loved ones die in the worst pandemic of their lifetimes. Because…well…abortion, that’s why.
If I’m guilty of any magical thinking, it’s that we might have had the worst of this pass by my community. The largest single day case increase -so far- was weeks ago. I know things can go to hell very quickly, but on the whole, I think most people here are being reasonable and cooperative. I also know that assholes are everywhere, but ours are fewer in number and less organized. AND, they are not heavily armed, nor are they being egged on by elected officials of any party, in any level of government.
There are people in my little corner of the North East of England planning mass gatherings to protest the safety measures.
This despite nearby Middlesbrough having one of the highest rates of infection in the country.
Fortunately, they haven’t been very subtle about advertising it so they’ll likely come to nothing. What happened to northern stoicism and common sense?
Interestingly, the comments on that story in our local paper refer to “our resident f*ckwit” and for once they don’t mean me.
I am not a popular figure around there.
Well that is interesting…I’m in a completely different region, one that has been touched very lightly by the pandemic, and we’ve apparently got a ‘mass gathering’ in the city centre coming up–which uses the very same words on its poster.
guest:
From what I can tell these are being organised by the UK Freedom Movement people, which is connected or adjacent to Britain First, both far-right organisations, the latter arguably being connected to the murder of Jo Cox.
There are such gatherings arranged in various places around the country.
Thanks–good to know. Given that, I’d be surprised if many, or any, locals actually show up.
Show up here, I mean–no idea what it’s like in the rest of the country.
guest:
This area was a former Labour stronghold which has recently gone very Tory and very, very Brexit. I won’t be surprised if there is a ‘good’ turnout if any actually take place around here.
Community news reports that zero people turned up at the ‘mass rally’ near where I live; apparently more police than visitors there that afternoon. Two were supposed to have been organised in my town; no idea what the turnout was at the other site, but probably also zero, and if anyone had attended the police would probably have been there.
Nobody turned up to the one near me, either. It had the potential to turn nasty because it was supposed to be in the same car park as the local covid testing centre but a moderate lack of stupidity prevailed for once.