At meaningful risk of breaking down
So, about this election…
If we are lucky, this fraught and dysfunctional election cycle will reach a conventional stopping point in time to meet crucial deadlines in December and January. The contest will be decided with sufficient authority that the losing candidate will be forced to yield. Collectively we will have made our choice—a messy one, no doubt, but clear enough to arm the president-elect with a mandate to govern.
As a nation, we have never failed to clear that bar. But in this election year of plague and recession and catastrophized politics, the mechanisms of decision are at meaningful risk of breaking down. Close students of election law and procedure are warning that conditions are ripe for a constitutional crisis that would leave the nation without an authoritative result. We have no fail-safe against that calamity.
And we do have a lot of very worked-up angry resentful heavily armed people, mostly on the right, especially the heavily armed ones.
A lot of people, including Joe Biden, the Democratic Party nominee, have misconceived the nature of the threat. They frame it as a concern, unthinkable for presidents past, that Trump might refuse to vacate the Oval Office if he loses. They generally conclude, as Biden has, that in that event the proper authorities “will escort him from the White House with great dispatch.”
The worst case, however, is not that Trump rejects the election outcome. The worst case is that he uses his power to prevent a decisive outcome against him. If Trump sheds all restraint, and if his Republican allies play the parts he assigns them, he could obstruct the emergence of a legally unambiguous victory for Biden in the Electoral College and then in Congress. He could prevent the formation of consensus about whether there is any outcome at all. He could seize on that uncertainty to hold on to power.
It’s long and it’s scary.
H/t YNnB
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https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2020/11/what-if-trump-refuses-concede/616424/
I think at that point he isn’t really holding on to power so much as the beginning of the end of a “United” federal government and a dissolution of a cohesive state. Then covid-19 *really* takes over as things start to collapse.
Though I don’t think the US has ever truly been cohesive. We have maintained the illusion of cohesive (only imperfectly; the Civil War sort of violated that image). Trump has stripped us bare of all illusions, and shown us for what we really are – a dysfunctional family that for some reason let the old uncle with Alzheimer’s control the family budget, defense, and organizational structure.