Debt bubbles eventually burst
Robert Reich points out the well known fact that most people are not doing well in this economy and that there’s a huge gap between the rich and everyone else. Then he points out the not quite so well known consequence.
Last year, about 40 percent of American families struggled to meet at least one basic need – food, health care, housing or utilities, according to an Urban Institute survey.
All of which suggests we’re careening toward the same sort of crash we had in 2008, and possibly as bad as 1929.
Clear away the financial rubble from those two former crashes and you’d see they both followed upon widening imbalances between the capacity of most people to buy, and what they as workers could produce. Each of these imbalances finally tipped the economy over.
If you insist on paying your workers a tiny wage then they’re not going to be able to buy your product, so then what, smart boss?
The same imbalance has been growing again. The richest 1 percent of Americans now takes home about 20 percent of total income, and owns over 40 percent of the nation’s wealth.
These are close to the peaks of 1928 and 2007.
The U.S. economy crashes when it becomes too top heavy because the economy depends on consumer spending to keep it going, yet the rich don’t spend nearly as much of their income as the middle class and the poor.
For a time, the middle class and poor can keep the economy going nonetheless by borrowing. But, as in 1929 and 2008, debt bubbles eventually burst.
I replied to Reich’s tweet sharing this post, before reading the post, “you mean we can’t just keep piling up debt forever??”
After the 1929 crash, the government invented new ways to boost wages – Social Security, unemployment insurance, overtime pay, a minimum wage, the requirement that employers bargain with labor unions, and, finally, a full-employment program called World War II.
After the 2008 crash, the government bailed out the banks and pumped enough money into the economy to contain the slide. But apart from the Affordable Care Act, nothing was done to address the underlying problem of stagnant wages.
That’s for sure. The Democratic party turned its back on that idea long ago.
Trump and his Republican enablers are now reversing regulations put in place to stop Wall Street’s excessively risky lending.
But Trump’s real contributions to the next crash are his sabotage of the Affordable Care Act, rollback of overtime pay, burdens on labor organizing, tax reductions for corporations and the wealthy but not for most workers, cuts in programs for the poor, and proposed cuts in Medicare and Medicaid – all of which put more stress on the paychecks of most Americans.
Yup. I’ve been saying it all along – it’s all about shoving more more more money to the rich, and grabbing everything away from everyone else.
Brace yourselves for the crash.
Ironically, it is in the interest of every capitalist that every other capitalist pay his or her workers the highest possible wages. Otherwise there will be massive wealth accumulation for the few at the rich end of the economy, and massive poverty for the many at the poor end, and declining sales for the capitalist’s products..
One way governments have found to avoid or quell social unrest and revolt from below is creation of a diversion: the historical favourite being a foreign war, preferably a colonial war against a poorer foreign enemy. The US has achieved that via pumping money into its military-industrial complex for the Cold War and Vietnam. Its humiliating defeat in Vietnam is a major reason for Donald (‘Captain Bonespurs’) Trump’s slogan ‘make America great again.’
But historically, arms races only end one way.
At the same time, Marxist and revolutionary socialism is no long-term answer, as blowflies and rent-seekers lay their eggs all over it, and the result is worse. Joseph Stalin will probably maintain his position as the most powerful man who ever lived, and for a long time, if not forever.
I certainly hope so.
I keep wondering what level this is going to affect me at… my employer has contracts with a backlog measured in years if not decades many of which are for the US military. Job security isn’t likely going to be a problem and I make an acceptable wage for an hourly worker… I’m guessing inflation is gonna be the main issue?